Which NFL Head Coach Will Win NFL's AP Coach Award

It is only normal for fans and even betters to focus on the game outcomes, and the players playing in the teams. But an important managerial job - coaching - also has worth from the perspective of wagering. The AP Coach of the Year award is given to one head coach every year, so, let us take a look at who will bag it this year. 

Your team has to be winning

Even if the team’s coach is good, it all boils down to how the team performs and the number of wins that they can post that season. The team’s regular-season record is considered, and the average number of wins over the past ten seasons stands at a mighty 12.6. The only time in the past 30 years any coach has won this without such a high win rate was in 1990 - when Johnson helped the Cowboys with a 7-9 record, an almost impossible feat considering their 1989 season was 1-15. 

This information alone is enough for us to understand the parameters of what makes Coach of the Year material. One of the best ways to eliminate coaches from this list is to cross out the teams that don’t stand a chance of winning even 12 games, and this could be many teams, depending on their form or even their lackluster roster. It doesn’t matter how they do in their press conferences and their half time speeches because all that matters is their winning record which has to stand at least at 12. 

So let us first take a look at the teams which are not going to get as many wins, no matter how hard they try - the Jets, Dolphins, Texans, Panthers, Lions, Jaguars, Redskins, Bengals and the Giants. This easily eliminates nine teams right at the beginning and leaves only 23 in contention. The reason these nine have been ousted off the list immediately is not that they are bad coaches. It is because they need their team to play and pick up wins to show that they are great coaches, not just based on their abilities. It is a minimum requirement that any coach in contention has to show at least 12, if not more, wins in the regular season. The Texans, for example, don’t stand a chance this season despite their coach being somewhat up there. Especially not after he made the decision as the coach to trade DeAndre Hopkins, who was playing the best game of his life. 

Who is really in contention?

We can forget about last year’s John Harbaugh, whose team the Ravens went undefeated for 14 out of 16 games. The stakes are too high for him to win again, i.e. they need to win all 16 games if he wants the award again, and that is near impossible. So, he is out of the race.

Bill Belichick appears to be a popular contender, and a lot of it has to do with the fact that Tom Brady has left the New England Patriots. They do have Cam Newton added to their roster now, but he is an MVP, so no average number of wins this season will make the coach look good. But this would definitely be a feat if he had done it with someone not as experienced playing on his team, such as a second-year pro. 

This rationale applies while considering Tampa Bay’s head coach, Bruce Arians. His club is going to be doing a massive turnaround from its 7-9 season last year, but that is assured because of the talent that has come into their team this season. His team now has Tom Brady, the GOAT, and another great addition to their offensive side in Rob Gronkowski. This talent itself will make it impossible for Arians to win an award because their turnaround will be completely attributed to the new players. But over 13 games won by them could make it possible for Arians to list the award. 

My prediction of the Coach of the Year award lies strongly with the Cowboy’s Mike McCarthy, who was previously at Green Bay. He has the talent for coaching that was wasted away for the past 13 years, but now he has a skilled team that was continuously underperforming last season. They currently have the best runner in the game - Ezekiel Elliott - and now three energetic receivers from the previous two, boosted by CeeDee Lamb’s arrival. Mike McCarthy is the sensible bet, given how the Dallas Cowboys have had a bad season previously, and their roster is brimming with talent.