MLB Season: Will The Boston Red Sox Win More Games This Season?

The Major League Baseball season was in full swing when it had to be abruptly cut off due to the pandemic. Before this shutting down, the Boston Red Sox team made a trade that shocked fans, and the media alike. The team traded all-star outfielder Mookie Betts as well as starting pitcher David Price to the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for Alex Verdugo and the lesser-known prospects, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong. Before this trade went through, the Red Sox looked like they would win 87.5 games by February. But their total estimate went down two points to 85.5 after this trade was complete.

The funny part is that even after the drop, the estimate appears to be too high. While they had their Mookie Betts and David Price playing last year, they still managed to win only 84 games. Without them on the squad anymore, the 85.5 wins estimate is laughable at best. The Mets took away another good player, Rick Porcello, from the Red Sox. Their starters include Chris Sale who could possibly not play this season and Eduardo Rodriguez who just tested positive for the coronavirus, so, he’s automatically out. This group is not the easiest to rely on even on a good day because the two of them and Eovaldi have to be in good form to play well. With even one of them out, the starting rotation becomes a mess, this could happen this season.

The Red Sox had the 18th best bullpen in 2019 and it hasn’t changed much this season. This is why the shortened season is likely to push them to have a lower-tier bullpen. Chaim Bloom himself, the Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer, expressed regret in the trade with the Dodgers, saying in as many words that it was a poor trade. But the Red Sox also have a new manager this season - Ron Roenicke, who replaces Alex Cora. His stats in managing in the MLB are 342-331, career-long. 

His last stint was at the Brewers for four years, until 2015. In his first year with them, he helped them get a 96-66 record in the NL, and they finished first in the NL Central. They couldn’t, however, make it to the NL Championship series. Roenicke has his work cut out for him. His first worry should be the starting pitching of his players. He has pointed it out himself, so, it’s on the list of things he will address before the season behinds. He also indicated that management is looking for quality starters on the market to play for them this season. 

Nathan Eovaldi is likely to be the opening day starter for the team, but he’s a borderline fourth or fifth starter. After him, one can expect Martin Perez, Ryan Weber, and Brian Johnson to play. This rotation has nothing to win against some Eastern bigwigs, including the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta Braves, and the New York Mets. If this is the final line up, Red Sox has to be ready to lose at least half their games this season.

Let us take a look at why. The four starters only have a combined 4.55 ERA in 354 starts. The team currently has no idea who the fifth starter will be because they are clearly in the market to bring in a new person to the team. Collin McHugh could have been a good fit, but he’s out this season because of surgery for his flexor strain. The market does have a few promising starting pitchers, but the Red Sox hasn’t picked anyone yet. 

They do have one option - to trade for a starter with another team. The issue is that they don’t have anyone who would be able to affect such a trade. They can’t possibly make the decision to trade the prospects they just got in from the Dodgers, as it would be counterproductive to their exercise of rebuilding their roster. None of the other players have the value to command the trade of a good starter for the team. 

So if all the facts are taken into account, it is clear that they will be without a new starter, and therefore, the season isn’t going to go well for them. This is one of the reasons why even 30.5 wins are being looked at as near impossible with the odds of this going at -150. The schedule is completely against them too, with the strong NL and AL East division teams to be played.