NFL Season 2020: Stats For The Bettors To Know

Look at the NFL for all its betting opportunities, regardless of the change in format this year. We should use stats to help understand how to go forward but not get hung up on historical trends alone. Use these types of stats along with prop bets to get the best value from them.

Rookie Passing Touchdown Record

This category is self-explanatory. Baker Mayfield’s rookie streak is fantastic, seeing as he set a record for the most passing touchdowns. He has 27 scores from 14 games, and Joe Burrow is currently gunning to break his record. Burrow also has good support from the team’s playmakers to help him break the record. Burrow might not look capable because only six quarterbacks ever have gone over on this bet. But on the bright side, four of them are current QBs and it includes a 2019 rookie. The rookie, Jones, has good stats but isn’t good enough to pose a threat to Burrow. Burrow’s talent will get him through easily. He makes for a good pick. 

Highest-Scoring Offenses

This was the Baltimore Ravens last season. Lamar Jackson and his team will continue their streak this year, but it’s unlikely they’ll replicate their magic. They had 33 points per game average. Kansas City is a probable contender this year, at a good value at +500. Tampa Bay might be even better because their offense is their strong suit, and they can’t afford to slack off. While the Buccaneers look promising, Tom Brady isn’t enough to help them get this title. Tampa Bay is the best value bet you can make here. 

Strength of Schedules

This bet is typically overvalued, but you can also buy into it if the context agrees with the values. That is the case when you look at the New England Patriots and you can also expect the Buffalo Bills to win the division. You can look at how the Patriots schedule will make life harder for them. Their opponents have a combined winning rate of .530, and they just lost Tom Brady. It is unlikely that they will even win seven games this season. Pick the Bills for their division win, it looks like a great bet.

Tom Brady Career Averages

A bet made for the iconic quarterback himself. This is a bit difficult to get right because he has shown a decrease in performance last year, but whether that can be attributed to his team has to be seen. He is 43 years old, but even that doesn’t seem to put him down expectations wise. In comparison to Jameis Winston, he still looks to be the right pick.

Winston’s interceptions don’t make him a bad QB, but his team will be held back by him rather than Brady holding his team back. Brady will be throwing over 600 times this season, and his yards will be massive. It might seem inflated, but his move seems to show positive signs.

Rookie Rushing Yard Trends

The Colts this season has some great value rookies such as Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor. The team will also be counting on Philip Rivers, and a bunch of young receivers, so their games will have maximum satisfaction to watch. But keep your eyes on Taylor. He’s a better and more consistent bet than D’Andre Swift in prop bets because of his run game is stronger. He, in addition to Mack, can play a fabulous game. They easily have 800 to 1000 yards each to be cleared this season. Over 70 rookie backs have easily cleared 750 yards last season, so Taylor has the potential to go even further.

Rookie Sack Trends

Taylor is expected to go above his total, but Chase Young’s expected stats aren’t that great. Seems like a good value bet for that reason alone, as he has hit an 8.5 total, which only 42 other rookie pass rushers have managed to. But there is more to the story when it comes to rookie sack trends, they are usually luck-based, which is why many of those who have hit this goal have fizzled out and aren’t memorable anymore. 

Young won’t end up like that, and he is bound to have a better season than a random player who hit 10 sacks like Maxx Crosby. This is mainly because Crosby had a fantastic opening to grab these sacks as well as move-in at the last minute after his teammates had worked for them. This is quite risky, and even if you believe Young has the odds to make it, you have better bets to pick than this category.